Term paper on Critical Review Risk Perception: Individual and Collective Life and Livelihood Strategies

Theoretical views on risk perception may vary consistently. At this point, it is possible to refer to epistemic and frequentist conceptions of probability in the context of the risk perception. To put it more precisely, epistemic and frequentist conceptions of probability suggest different views on the natural disaster risk perception, because they use different theoretical approaches to its probability. On the other hand, it is worth mentioning the fact that both conceptions should be taken into consideration, while assessing the risk perception in communities. The diverse theoretical approach to the assessment of the risk perception allows making objective conclusions concerning the risk perception in certain communities but it is still important to remember about the close interaction between individuals and communities and their mutual impact.

The epistemic conception stands on the ground that the prior knowledge is of the utmost importance for the risk perception.

To put it more precisely, the past experience of the community and individuals play the determinant role in the risk perception of natural disasters such as earthquakes. If the community has suffered from earthquakes in the past and is well-informed about the risk of earthquakes, then the community will be aware of the repetition of the disaster and related risks and consequences. Also, individuals, who have once witnessed an earthquake, will be more conscious of risks and negative effects of earthquakes and they will take warnings of the risk of earthquake more seriously than individuals, who have never witnessed earthquakes. Therefore, the experience of individuals and communities and their knowledge of earthquakes are crucial in terms of the epistemic concept.

In addition, it is worth mentioning the fact that the epistemic concept places emphasis on the fact that the natural disaster like earthquake should be studied thoroughly. As the matter of fact, supporters of this concept (Haddow & Bullock, 2004) stand on the ground that individuals and communities should accumulate knowledge of natural disasters. The more information they collect on earthquake the more prepared they will come, if the disaster strikes. In such a way, the epistemic concept stresses the priority of knowledge as the key factor for the risk perception. Individuals should extend their knowledge on earthquakes to know how to act in case of the disaster to save their life and secure their health. At the same time, they should accumulate knowledge of earthquakes to develop effective strategies of the prevention of negative effects of earthquakes. For instance, they can introduce new technologies in construction of buildings, develop disaster management, and introduce other essential changes. In addition, individuals should share knowledge and information concerning earthquakes within their community. In such a way, through sharing knowledge within communities, individuals can increase the awareness of people of existing risks and prepare them to face earthquakes.

The frequentist conception stands on quite a different ground. Even though the frequentist concept also refers to the past experience of communities, but this concept holds the premise that natural disasters, such as earthquakes occur with certain frequency. This means that, in terms of the frequentist concept, individuals should not be afraid of earthquake, if it has recently struck the area, where they live. At the same time, the frequentist approach takes into consideration multiple factors, including the frequency at which earthquakes occur in certain area, the power of each earthquake and other statistical information. On the ground of the detailed statistical analysis, they can elaborate effective measures of forecasting disasters, such as earthquakes and increase the risk perception in individuals and communities. In such a way, the frequentist concept stresses the detailed analysis of statistics concerning natural disasters such as earthquakes to inform the public about the risk of the disaster. At the same time, it is worth mentioning the fact that individuals can perceive such warnings, if they are deep-rooted in the community consciousness. What is meant here is the fact that the risk perception will increase if the community admits the risk of earthquake. If the community remains indifferent to warnings of specialists, individuals will hardly develop a different view on the risk of earthquakes than the mainstream position of the community. On the other hand, if specialists working on the increase of the risk perception starts working with each individual, they may increase their awareness of the risk of earthquake and if they reach the target audience, they can shape the public opinion and increase the public risk perception. The frequentist concept stresses the significance of the detailed analysis and delivering of information concerning risks to the public. In such a way, it is possible to increase the risk perception and make communities prepared to such natural disasters as earthquakes.