Essays on Critical Review Risk Perception

Along with epistemic and frequentalist concepts, the risk perception should take into consideration conditional probabilities, calculus of probabilities and Bayes theorem. Basically, these concepts help to better understand the risk perception and the extent to which the risk may be probable. At this point, it is worth mentioning the fact that individuals are very concerned with the probability of the risk because, normally, the higher is the risk of a natural disaster like earthquake the more aware people are about the prevention of injuries and destructions provoked by the disaster. At the same time, the public relies heavily on the probability because the three aforementioned probabilities are grounded on the statistical analysis and lay the foundation to the scientific research method, which helps the researchers to define accurately the extent to which the disaster is probable. In other words, the public takes into consideration the probability of the disaster and respond respectively to the risk. If scientists define the risk as relatively high, the public grows aware of the risk of the earthquake, if scientists define the risk as low, the public remains indifferent to the problem of the risk of the earthquake. At this point, it is important to place emphasis on the fact that scientists cannot always predict the probability of the earthquake accurately. As the matter of fact, the risk of error persists, in spite of all the technological advancements that are at the disposal of the contemporary science. In such a situation, the error in the calculation of the probability may have disastrous effects for the community.

At the same time, it is important to remember that probability does not imply absolute certainty. What is meant here is the fact that the earthquake that is probably to happen may not happen in the real life. On the contrary, even if scientists consider the earthquake as improbable in the nearest future, it still can happen. In such a situation, the dependence of the public and individual risk perception on the probabilities defined by scientists is not always reliable.

Nevertheless, conditional probabilities imply that the earthquake can occur under certain conditions, for instance, environmental changes. In such a situation, the public and individuals are informed of possible environmental changes which may directly or indirectly indicate to the upcoming earthquake. If people observe these changes their risk perception increases rapidly. In contrast, if they fail to notice any signs of the upcoming disaster their risk perception stays low.

The calculus of probabilities provides the public and individuals with the overall assessment of the probability of the disaster. What is meant here is the fact that the calculus of probabilities provides the information on how real the probabilities of the disaster are. In such a way, the public can assess the probability of the risk and the extent to which the risk is real with the help of calculus of probabilities. In such a situation, the risk perception of the earthquake may still vary at the individual and collective level depending on the calculus of probabilities, but it is obvious that people become more aware of possible risks, if they know that its probability is high. To enhance the assessment of the risk of earthquake, scientists may use Bayes’ theorem, which also demonstrates the probability of the occurrence of the earthquake. However, whatever the method is, it is important to place emphasis on the fact that the probability of the earthquake defined by scientists cannot always mirror the actual situation and the earthquake can strike, in spite of forecasts of specialists.

At the same time, scientists can apply probability distributions, normal and Poisson to assess the risk of the earthquake. In such a context, it is worth mentioning the fact that the public opinion and individual risk perception may be vulnerable to the impact of such risk assessment strategies. However, people do not always rely on the statistical analysis, whereas often they are just unaware of the risk of the earthquake in the area, where they live. In fact, the problem is not just the accurate calculation of the risk of the earthquake and its probability but also and mainly the problem is the communication of the threat to the public and each individual. At this point, the main problem arises because the individual perception of the risks associated with the earthquake may vary consistently.

For instance, some individuals may be conscious of the fact that the disaster may strike any moment, whereas others will never believe that the earthquake will strike or affect them anyhow in their life. The community can influence individuals. In such a context, the assessment of the probability of the disaster may one of the factors that may influence or change the risk perception at the individual level.